On October 20, 2026, FERC proposed a rule that would let LNG plants raise their authorized capacity within their footprint on 60 days’ prior notice, unless protested; comments are due December 21. Two terminals already cleared to export more show what a higher limit is worth. In EIA’s monthly exports from February to July 2026, Plaquemines shipped above its old FERC limit while its second phase was still commissioning, and Calcasieu Pass never reached its own.

The lesson is that a higher limit adds exports only at a plant that is already running full. FERC’s own analysis says the rule would move a handful of projects a year off case-specific review and would not change how many are built. State attorneys general had already opposed blanket treatment of capacity expansions in comments on FERC’s earlier inquiry.

What decides the build-out, in my analysis, is the next round of investment decisions, not the permit. U.S. export liquefaction construction absorbed an estimated $25.2 billion of capital in 2025. In the base case, annual spending peaks in 2027 and falls to $20.3 billion by 2030 as the 2025 investment wave completes, while nominal capacity more than doubles. The figure is capital spend, not revenue.

New export terminals take most of today’s spending, but their spending falls as they complete. New trains at existing or under-construction sites are the only route whose spending holds to 2030 in the base case, and only if two expansions still awaiting final investment decisions proceed in 2027. Building beside a plant did not come cheaper either: in the two 2025 investment filings read, Woodside’s Louisiana LNG, a new terminal, and Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2, beside a terminal still under construction, showed no visible capital discount per tonne.

For developers, lenders and gas producers, I read this as a reason to keep two numbers apart: the capacity that produces LNG and the capacity that is only permitted. From 2030, most base-case spending rests on final investment decisions not yet taken.

The full analysis, with the terminal-by-terminal test against FERC and DOE limits, spending and capacity by route and state, and three scenarios with a view to 2035, is in the report U.S. LNG Export Liquefaction Market, 2025–2030, available on the report’s page.