When JIATF-401 and the Army announced ten Domestic Shield counter-drone contracts, the awards carried $4.15 billion of ceilings. As of that announcement, the ten module contracts had carried $50 million. The same buyer had already paid first for one command-and-control platform and one integrated base-defence order: $142.0 million obligated on its order for Anduril’s Lattice platform, and a sole-source base-defence order with AeroVironment.

The argument of my new report on the U.S. homeland counter-UAS market rests on that order of payment. The module contracts open the module layer, while at the command-and-control layer the buyer has so far chosen one platform. My analysis argues that open architecture is moving lock-in up to integration. One limit matters: the Lattice record does not say how much of that order serves U.S. sites, so the claim is about the order in which the buyer has paid, not about homeland command-and-control on its own.

Another finding sets the market’s edges: most counter-drone contract money is not homeland money. Expeditionary, special-operations and research actions carried most of the Department of War counter-UAS obligations visible in fiscal 2025 federal contract data. Inside the homeland market, military installations remain the largest buyer tier. State and local agencies are the fastest-growing tier, if FEMA’s grants continue past fiscal 2027, and that channel runs through public-safety platforms: Motorola Solutions has completed its acquisition of D-Fend Solutions, and Dedrone is part of Axon.

For module vendors, integrators and investors, the practical question is what open architecture changes and what it does not. The report sizes the market by buyer tier and by value-chain layer, and forecasts it to 2030 in conservative, base and optimistic scenarios. The size is a budget apportioned by an observed obligation mix, not a sum of obligations, and the contract data the mix comes from see a minority of the Department’s budget base. It is plain about what the forecast rests on: the later years depend on money not yet appropriated, with fiscal 2027 funding running on a continuing resolution. The federal civil tier declines in the base case because it follows IQPC’s 2024 budget series, which predates the 2026 expansion of counter-drone authority.

The full analysis, with the contract evidence, the tier sizes and the ten company profiles, is on the report’s page: U.S. Homeland Counter-UAS Market, 2025–2030.