Buyers in the United States hold 1,054 MW of binding contracts for next-generation geothermal power. The capacity operating today is 6.5 MW. That gap is the market: output sold years before it can be produced, mostly to buyers who want firm clean power and have decided not to wait for it to be proven. Binding is not delivered, though. An agreement can still be cancelled, downsized or renegotiated before the first large phase comes online.

The money is moving now because the buyers moved first. Hyperscalers, a utility, community-choice aggregators and a retail supplier have all signed for capacity with commercial operation dates running to 2030. United States project capital spending on next-generation geothermal is estimated at about $1.5 billion in 2026, and most of it is one company’s: Fervo Energy, the one listed developer. The market inherits that concentration, on the buying side as well as the building side. The surface layer is being designed now, too: in August 2026 Sage Geosystems and Chiyoda Corporation opened a feasibility study on the high-pressure surface facilities a pressure-based system needs.

The tension most coverage misses sits above ground. Every improvement in the reservoir lowers what the surface layer earns per kilowatt. Fervo says its next phase is engineered to raise power output per well while reducing installed cost per kilowatt. More power through the same surface package means less surface equipment for each kilowatt built. For the equipment and EPC firms scaling up to serve the build, from Ormat Technologies and Baker Hughes to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Turboden, revenue follows the volume of megawatts funded rather than their share of each project. They carry exposure to a subsurface they do not control.

That changes the question a decision-maker should ask. It is not whether the contracts are real. It is when the first large phase reaches commercial operation, and what the wells do to cost per kilowatt when it does. The cost case is contested in the peer-reviewed record, the gigawatt-scale supply agreements behind the build are frameworks rather than orders, and full tax credits require construction to start by 2033.

The sizing, the segmentation, the supply layer and the company profiles are in our United States enhanced geothermal systems market report.